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21年9-12月ACCA AFM精读解析 :Scenario 3

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发布时间：2022-02-11 14:22

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前面为大家介绍了【21年9-12月ACCA AFM精读解析 :Scenario 2】，下面继续带大家了解September/December 2021 AFM精读解析:Scenario 3。

背景：对公司的部分业务进行出售

1、计算出售children's shoes分部的价格和出售对资产负债表的影响以及每股收益的影响

使用现金流量折现计算children's shoes的价格

第五年及以后的增长率为3.5%

第五年及之后的现值=($88m x1·035/(0·10–0·035)x 0·683=$957m

总体的现值=$260m+$957m=$1,217

出售children's shoes的利润=1217-608（该分部的长期资产）-349（该分部的流动资产）=260

题目给出出售之后，流动比例上升为1.4，同时偿还9%的债券175万，可以计算得出短期资产和长期资产的变动情况

短期资产(909-349)+1217(收到的现金)+变动额=849*1.4

变动额=-505

负债偿还利率为9%的长期债券175

权益出售children's shoes的利润260

长期资产=1217-349-608-260+525-175=350

调整之后的资产负债表

对每股收益的影响

2、讨论投资人是否会对出售children's shoes感到满意

答案从三个方面进行了分析：出售本身、出售导致的利润的变动、出售之后的融资。

出售

Investors may query the need for the sale atthis time.Although the board expects the children'sshoes market to become more competitive in a few years’time,this has not yethappened.Investors may wonder if a better sales price could be obtained in afew years’time with a few more years’growth.Although some investors areconcerned about gearing,a sale to reduce debt funding may seem to be a forcedsale,and investors may ask whether alternative strategies could resolve theproblems.

投资者此时可能会询问是否需要出售。尽管董事会预计童鞋市场几年后将变得更加激烈的竞争，但这还没有发生。投资者可能想知道再加上几年的增长是否可以获得更好的销售价格。尽管一些投资者担心负债，但出售以减少债务融资似乎是一种强制出售，投资者可能会问其他策略是否可以解决问题。

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Investors may also wonder whyHanwood Shoes Co is not exploring the possibility of selling the productionfacilities(if sale proceeds equalled net book value,that would beenough to pay off the 9%loan notes).Hanwood Shoes Co could then use the sameoutsourcing business model for producing children’s shoes which it does foradults’shoes

投资者可能还想知道为什么HanwoodShoes公司不探索出售生产设施的可能性（如果出售收益足以偿还9%的债券）。然后Hanwood Shoes公司可以使用与成人鞋外包业务模式相同生产童鞋。

Investors may also be concernedwhether Hanwood Shoes Co is achieving best value from the sale if the companyis going to be selling the division at$1,217m.Assuming a higher growthrate(perhaps by taking the geometric average of growth over the next fouryears)would give a higher selling price.Hanwood Shoes Co could also beexpected to ask for a premium on the sale,given that a number of companieslooking to develop their sales of children’s shoes may be interested.Thatsaid,the cash flows in the calculation are taken to infinity,which isoptimistic.

投资者也可能会担心HanwoodShoes公司是否会从出售中获得最佳价值，如果该公司打算以1217万美元的价格出售该部门。假设更高的增长率（也许通过未来四年增长的几何平均值）将给出更高的售价。Hanwood Shoes公司也有望要求溢价考虑到有一些希望发展童鞋销售的公司可能有兴趣。也就是说，现金计算中的流量取无穷大，这是乐观的。

Investors would also wonderabout the decreased diversification that the sale would mean.Although adults’shoesachieve higher margins than children’s shoes,they may need more investment tomaintain their position,and the appeal of fashionable ranges may be uncertain.Children’s school shoes have been a reliable cash generator.Ultimately also,the investors may feel that they are investing in a smaller company,given thedecrease in the non-current base and range of products,and may want to investelsewhere in a company offering better growth prospects.

投资者还想知道此次出售意味着多元化程度的下降。虽然成人鞋利润率高

于童鞋，他们可能需要更多的投资来维持自己的地位，以及时尚的吸引力

范围可能不确定。童鞋一直是可靠的现金流。最终，投资者可能会觉得

考虑到非当前基础和产品范围的减少，他们正在投资一家较小的公司，并

且可能希望在其他地方投资一家提供更好增长前景的公司。

利润

The forecast increase inearnings per share is 9·2%,but investors will question whether the assumptionson which the forecast is based are optimistic.They will also take into accountthe risks of the business being less diversified as it will solely be sellingadult shoes.However,part of the increase in profits is a fall in thecommitment to paying interest,which investors may view positively if they areconcerned about gearing.

每股收益预测增长9·2%，但投资者会质疑预测所依据的假设是否是基于是乐观的。他们还将考虑业务多元化程度较低的风险，因为它将会只出售

成人鞋。然而，利润增加的部分原因是支付利息的承诺下降，投资者如果担心财务杠杆，则会将此认为是积极的。

融资

The sale will help fund an improvement in the gearing of thecompany.The funds will not only be available to pay off the 9%loan notesimmediately,they could also be used to pay off the bank loan and/or the otherloan notes in time,or reduce trade payables as they may be being used as asource of short-term funding.However,investors might also wonder how futureinvestment in adults’shoe shops would be funded,particularly if future salesdid not meet current expectations.Current lenders may have placed restrictionson Hanwood Shoes Co seeking new borrowing from other sources.If Hanwood ShoesCo was able to seek additional loan capital,it would have a smallernon-current asset base to offer as security,which may affect lenders‘attitudes

此次出售将有助于为改善公司的负债率提供资金。这些资金不仅可用于立即偿还9%的债券，还可以用于及时偿还银行贷款和/或其他债券，或减少应付账款，因为它们可能被用作短期资金来源。然而，投资者可能还想知道未来对成人鞋店的投资将如何获得资金，特别是如果未来的销售额不符合当前预期。目前的借款方可能已经对HanwoodShoes公司从其他来源寻求新借款施加了限制。如果HanwoodShoes公司能够寻求额外的贷款资本，它将提供较小的非流动资产基础作为担保，这可能会影响贷方的态度。

3、对于非执行董事关于流动性和利润的说法进行评论

Implications for profits对利润的影响

If thesurplus after the loan repayment was solely used to fund non-current assetinvestment,this would,based on the assumptions about the return onnon-current assets,increase earnings by$33m(($1,252m–$909m)x(18–6)%x(1–0·2)),representing a total increase of$53m or 24·4%.This would be moreacceptable to the shareholders.However,it might not be possible to sustainthe 18%return on non-current assets over a larger investment,certainly in theshort term.Hanwood Shoes Co might also consider the impact of the totalinvestment occurring over a longer period of time.

如果偿还贷款后的盈余仅用于为非流动资产投资提供资金，则根据关于非流动资产回报的假设，将收益增加3300万美元((1252百万美元–909百万美元)x(18–6)%x(1–0·2))，总计增加5300万美元（237+33-217）或24·4%。这对股东来说会更容易接受。然而，在短期内非流动资产的18%回报率可能不可能维持在更大的投资上。Hanwood Shoes公司也可能会考虑总投资在较长时间内发生的影响。

Implicationsfor liquidity对流动性的影响

However,the proposed policy would not result in the one-off improvement in liquidity.Hanwood Shoes Co is currently having difficulty paying suppliers,suggestingits current ratio is too low at present.Going forward,the increased volume ofactivity together with the longer turnover time of adult shoes compared withchildren’s shoes would probably mean an increase in inventory,and decreasedliquidity,making it more difficult to pay suppliers on time.Problems payingsuppliers would become more significant as Hanwood Shoes Co would be dependentin future on suppliers for all its shoes,rather than having children’s shoesmade in the factory

然而，建议的政策不会导致流动性的一次性改善。Hanwood Shoes公司目前有难以向供应商付款的情况，表明其目前的流动比率过低。展望未来，将要发生活动的增加再加上成人鞋的周转时间比儿童鞋长，这可能意味着库存的增加和流动性的减少，使按时向供应商付款变得更加困难。支付供应商的问题将变得更重要，Hanwood Shoes公司未来的所有鞋子都将依赖供应商，而不是拥有自己生产的工厂生产儿童鞋。

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