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ACCA FM知识点：Comparing the dividend growth model and CAPM

文章来源：ACCA全球官网

发布时间：2021-11-24 14:12

阅读：474次

财务管理的一个基本部分是投资评估：公司应该将资金投入哪些长期项目？

贴现现金流量技术(DCF)，尤其是净现值(NPV)，被普遍认为是评估项目的最佳方法。在DCF中，对未来现金流量进行贴现，以便计入货币时间价值。

Comparing the dividend growth model and CAPM

The dividend growth model allows the cost of equity to be calculated using empirical values readily available for listed companies.Measure the dividends,estimate their growth(usually based on historical growth),and measure the market value of the share(though some care is needed as share values are often very volatile).Put these amounts into the formula and you have an estimate of the cost of equity.

However,the model gives no explanation as to why different shares have different costs of equity.Why might one share have a cost of equity of 15%and another of 20%?The reason that different shares have different rates of return is that they have different risks,but this is not made explicit by the dividend growth model.That model simply measures what’s there without offering an explanation.Note particularly that a business cannot alter its cost of equity by changing its dividends.The equation:

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might suggest that the rate of return would be lowered if the company reduced its dividends or the growth rate.That is not so.All that would happen is that a cut in dividends or dividend growth rate would cause the market value of the company to fall to a level where investors obtain the return they require.

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The CAPM explains why different companies give different returns.It states that the required return is based on other returns available in the economy(the risk free and the market returns)and the systematic risk of the investment–its beta value.Not only does CAPM offer this explanation,it also offers ways of measuring the data needed.The risk free rate and market returns can be estimated from economic data.So too can the beta values of listed companies.It is,in fact,possible to buy books giving beta values and many investment websites quote investment betas.

When an investment and the market is in equilibrium,prices should have been adjusted and should have settled down so that the return predicted by CAPM is the same as the return that is measured by the dividend growth model.

Note also that both of these approaches give you the cost of equity.They do not give you the weighted average cost of capital other than in the very special circumstances when a company has only equity in its capital structure.

相关阅读：【ACCA FM知识点：The dividend growth model】

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