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ACCA FM知识点：股息理论实际考虑
文章来源：ACCA全球官网
发布时间：2021-11-02 14:08
阅读：976次
介绍过股利模型：股利估值模型、戈登增长模型、莫迪利亚尼和米勒的股息无关理论，下面我们一起分析下关于股利的实际情况。
Practical considerations
As so often occurs,theoretical outcomes do not always match practical considerations.So too with dividend irrelevancy.Perhaps this is because investors do not understand or believe the theory or perhaps it is because,to derive the theory,simplifying assumptions have to be made,such as the existence of perfect markets with no transaction costs and perfect information.
The practical matters are:【点击免费下载>>>更多ACCA学习相关资料】
●Signalling.The announcement of a dividend is the release of a piece of publically available information.The semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis says that the share price will react to this information.The problem is:what signal does a change in dividend give out and therefore how should share prices move?For example,does a cut in dividend mean that the company is conserving cash because it expects hard times or does it mean that the company sees a great investment opportunity?There is inevitably information asymmetry as the directors will almost certainly be in possession of information that is not in the public domain.Almost always shareholders will be unsettled by abrupt changes in dividend policy.
●Lack of trust in directors’forecasts or justifications for dividend cuts.Really,this point follows on from above.Directors might have been very open about a dividend policy but if investors do not share directors’optimism about the future success of the company,the share price will be affected.
●Investors’preference for current consumption rather than future promises(the‘bird in the hand’argument).Here,it is argued that a current dividend means that investors have safely received cash.Whereas,if the dividend were deferred they are at the mercy of future events and risks.This argument is very persuasive,but it is incorrect.Market forces should mean that a share price has been correctly set for the level of risk and returns made.If more cash is paid out as dividend the investor has to decide how to invest that cash.It could be spent on another investment which has higher returns and higher risk or on one where both returns and risks are lower.In either case,diversified investors should be happy with the deal because the capital asset pricing model states that extra risk is correctly compensated for by extra returns.
●The clientele effect.This idea suggests that investors buy shares that‘suit’their needs.So,a pension fund will base much of its investment portfolio on its need to produce income to pay to pensioners.It will therefore invest heavily in shares that pay regular,relatively predictable dividends.Similarly,tax can affect investment decisions if gains are taxed less severely than income.If a company abruptly changes its dividend policy it will disturb investors’carefully constructed portfolios and investors will have to adjust their mix of shares incurring transaction costs.It is sometimes argued that if a cut in dividend reduces an investor’s income,the investor can sell some shares to manufacture‘income’.Of course,this will again incur transaction costs and different tax treatment.
●Company liquidity.Irrespective of all the potential share price movements that a change in dividend policy might cause,companies have to ensure that their liquidity is sound and might have dividend reductions forced on them if they are to stay solvent.
●Borrowing covenants.Sometimes lenders put clauses in loan agreements which limit dividend payments,for example to a certain fraction of earnings.This is the lender trying to ensure that the loan is more secure.If less cash is paid as dividends,liquidity might be better(though,of course,cash can still be consumed on the purchase of non-current assets).
●Legal constraints.No distributable reserves means no dividends.
Here is perhaps a good place to mention scrip dividends.These allow shareholders to choose to receive shares as full or partial replacement of a cash dividend.The number of shares received is linked to the dividend and the market price of the shares so that roughly equivalent value is received.This choice allows investors to acquire new shares(if they don’t need the cash dividend)without transactions costs and the company can conserve its cash and liquidity.There can also be beneficial tax effects in some countries.
相关阅读：【ACCA FM知识点：The dividend valuation model】
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