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ACCA FM知识点：The Gordon growth model

文章来源：ACCA全球官网

发布时间：2021-11-02 13:50

阅读：845次

戈登股利增长模型又称为“股利贴息不变增长模型”、“戈登模型(Gordon Model)”，在大多数理财学和投资学方面的教材中，戈登模型是一个被广泛接受和运用的股票估价模型。它揭示了股票价格、预期基期股息、贴现率和股息固定增长率之间的关系。

The Gordon growth model

This model examines the cause of dividend growth.Assuming that a company makes neither a dramatic trading breakthrough(which would unexpectedly boost growth)nor suffers from a dreadful error or misfortune(which would unexpectedly harm growth),then growth arises from doing more of the same,such as expanding from four factories to five by investing in more non-current assets.Apart from raising more outside capital,expansion can only happen if some earnings are retained.If all earnings were distributed as dividend the company has no additional capital to invest,can acquire no more assets and cannot make higher profits.【点击免费下载>>>更多ACCA学习相关资料】

It can be relatively easily shown that both earnings growth and dividend growth is given by:

g=bR

where b is the proportion of earnings retained and R is the rate that profits are earned on new investment.Therefore,(1–b)will be the proportion of earnings paid as a dividend.Note that the higher b is,the higher is the growth rate:more earnings retained allows more investment to that will then produce higher profits and allow higher dividends.

So,if earnings at time 1 are E1,the dividend will be E1(1–b)so the dividend growth formula can become:

微信图片_20211102134830.png

If b=0,meaning that no earnings are retained then P0=E1/re,which is just the present value of a perpetuity:if earnings are constant,so are dividends and so is the share price.

If we consider that the dividend policy is represented by b and(1-b),the proportions of earnings retained and paid out,it looks as though the formula predicts that the share price will change if b changes,but that is not necessarily the case as we will see below.

相关阅读：【ACCA FM知识点：The dividend valuation model】

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